My takeaways on Politburo meeting
1. Strategic Policy Continuity:
The July Politburo meeting served not only as a mid-year review and roadmap for economic work in the second half of 2025 but also as the starting gun for China’s next Five-Year Plan (“15th Five-Year,” 2026–2030). This underscores Beijing’s emphasis on policy continuity and forward-looking macroeconomic planning, highlighting the leadership’s intention to balance short-term stabilization with long-term structural adjustments.
2. The “Four Stabilities”: Job, Enterprise, Market, and Expectations
The meeting reaffirmed four stabilization priorities—job security, enterprise stability, market steadiness, and anchoring expectations. Notably, the government placed renewed emphasis on prioritizing employment, introducing targeted policies to support key groups such as college graduates, veterans, and migrant workers. The focus demonstrates rising public concern over labor market pressures. Efforts to stabilize businesses, especially those affected by US tariff policy under Trump, signal that trade frictions remain a significant external shock to China’s economic stability. Measures to sustain foreign trade and investment—by boosting support for impacted exporters, expanding trade financing, and integrating domestic and international markets—reflect a broader pivot toward greater reliance on domestic demand.
3. Governing Market Competition and Industry Overcapacity
A core agenda item was the rule-based governance of disorderly market competition and the drive to address industrial overcapacity in key sectors. This represents concrete action against so-called “involution” (内卷， wasteful competition) as well as a calibrated response to international criticism of China’s excess capacity, particularly in manufacturing. The government is set to adopt more granular and sector-specific regulations to ensure market order and timely restructuring.
4. No Massive New Stimulus—Focus on Infrastructure and Targeted Relief
While no sweeping new stimulus measures were announced, the government reaffirmed a commitment to major infrastructure investment, exemplified by large-scale projects such as the lower Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower scheme (often compared to America’s Hoover Dam in the 1920s, I will publish a newsletter on this project soon). Official media have spotlighted programs promoting local employment through public works, with 2.08 million low-income residents benefiting in the first half of 2025 and 29.5 billion yuan in central government investment earmarked for such efforts this year.
5. Building a Tiered System of Social Support
The meeting highlighted new policies to refine China’s tiered social assistance system, including the rollout of annual child-rearing subsidies. The new standard—3,600 yuan per child per year—marks a meaningful step toward a more comprehensive and sustainable social safety net.
6. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Outlook
The Politburo reiterated a proactive fiscal approach and a moderate easing bias in monetary policy, emphasizing the need for implementation precision and real-world effectiveness. This signals the leadership’s intent to provide sustained macro-level support while avoiding the pitfalls of excessive stimulus.
The full readout is available here, and I have used the translated version, generated by AI, for this purpose.
The meeting emphasized that to do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, it is necessary to adhere to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as a guide, adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, maintain policy continuity and stability, enhance flexibility and foresight, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, effectively promote the dual circulation of the domestic and international economies, strive to achieve the annual goals and tasks for economic and social development, and successfully conclude the 14th Five-Year Plan.
会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现“十四五”圆满收官。
The meeting pointed out that macroeconomic policies should continue to exert force and be strengthened at the right time. More proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies should be implemented in detail to fully unleash the effects of these policies. The issuance and use of government bonds should be accelerated to improve the efficiency of fund utilization. The bottom line of “three guarantees” at the grassroots level should be secured. Monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. Various structural monetary policy tools should be utilized to provide stronger support for scientific and technological innovation, boost consumption, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade. Economic powerhouses should be supported to play a leading role. The consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations should be strengthened.
会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层“三保”底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。
The meeting emphasized the need to effectively release the potential of domestic demand. The special action plan to boost consumption should be deeply implemented, expanding commodity consumption while cultivating new growth points in service consumption. Expand consumption demand while ensuring and improving people's livelihoods. Promote high-quality development of “two major” projects, stimulate private investment vitality, and expand effective investment.
会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动“两重”建设，激发民间投资活力，扩大有效投资。
The meeting pointed out that we must resolutely deepen reforms. Adhere to science and technology innovation as the driving force for the development of new productive forces, accelerate the cultivation of emerging pillar industries with international competitiveness, and promote the deep integration of science and technology innovation and industrial innovation. Deepen the construction of a unified national market and continuously optimize market competition order. Govern disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations. Advance capacity governance in key industries. Standardize local investment promotion activities. Adhere to the principle of “two unwavering commitments” to stimulate the vitality of all types of business entities.
会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持“两个毫不动摇”，激发各类经营主体活力。
The meeting emphasized the need to expand high-level opening-up and stabilize the basic foundation of foreign trade and foreign investment. Assist foreign trade enterprises severely impacted by the crisis, strengthen financing support, and promote the integrated development of domestic and international trade. Optimize export tax rebate policies and build high-level open platforms such as pilot free trade zones.
会议强调，要扩大高水平对外开放，稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化出口退税政策，高水平建设自贸试验区等开放平台。
The meeting noted the need to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Implement the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carry out urban renewal in a high-quality manner. Actively and steadily resolve local government debt risks, strictly prohibit the addition of hidden debt, and effectively and orderly advance the clearance of local financing platforms. Enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market.
会议指出，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。
The meeting emphasized the need to solidly carry out livelihood protection work. Highlight the priority of employment policies and promote employment for key groups such as college graduates, veterans, and migrant workers. Implement people-oriented policies and improve the tiered and categorized social assistance system. Consolidate the foundation of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, and ensure that grain and important agricultural product prices remain at reasonable levels. Consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation to prevent large-scale relapses into poverty. Always prioritize the safety and well-being of the people, strengthen safety production and food safety supervision, fully prepare for flood control, emergency response, and disaster relief, and ensure energy and power supply during the peak summer season. Complete the compilation of the 15th Five-Year Plan.
会议强调，要扎实做好民生保障工作。突出就业优先政策导向，促进高校毕业生、退役军人、农民工等重点群体就业。落实好惠民政策，健全分层分类社会救助体系。夯实“三农”基础，推动粮食和重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，确保不发生规模性返贫致贫。始终把人民群众生命安全放在第一位，加强安全生产和食品安全监管，全力做好防汛应急抢险救灾，保障迎峰度夏期间能源电力供应。做好“十五五”规划编制工作。
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties. Leading cadres should establish and practice a correct view of achievements and carry out economic work in accordance with the new development philosophy. Entrepreneurs should take the lead and win market competition with high-quality products and services. All regions and departments should fully implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee, make good use of the results of in-depth learning and education on the spirit of the Central Eight-Point Decision, and provide strong momentum for high-quality development.
会议指出，要充分调动各方面积极性。领导干部要树立和践行正确政绩观，按照新发展理念做好经济工作。企业家要勇立潮头，以优质产品和服务赢得市场竞争主动。各地区各部门要全面落实党中央决策部署，用好深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果，为高质量发展提供强大动能。
The meeting also discussed other matters.
会议还研究了其他事项。